The Random Politic

1992 Election: Clinton/Bush v. Morneau

Fourteen years after George H. W. Bush was denied reelection to the oval office, the New York Yankees’ shortstop, Derek Jeter, was denied a Most Valuable Player (MVP) award.  Interestingly, if the United States of America used the Major League Baseball MVP award voting system, we could have had a completely different resulting in the 1992 presidential election.  Shall we take a look at the numbers…

In this year’s MVP vote, Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins – in case you did not know he is the 2006 Major League Baseball MVP — received 15 first place votes, 8 second place votes, 3 third place votes and 2 fourth place votes (for a total of 320 points).  Derek Jeter, of the New York Yankees, received 12 first place votes, 14 second place votes, 1 fourth place vote and 1 sixth place vote (for a total of 306 points).  The MVP winner is determined based on the total number of points, not first place votes.  Regardless, since there was only 28 voters for this year’s award, the Twin’s Morneau would have won based on a simple majority of first place votes.  (He received 15 to Jeter’s 12.)  Total points for MVP purposes is determined using the following formula.  Each voter ranks 10 players (from first to tenth).  The player ranked first on each ballot receives 14 points, the player ranked second receives 9 points, third receives 8 points, and so on (leaving the player ranked tenth with one point).  For example, let’s look at David Ortiz, who finished in third place for this year’s MVP award.  Big Papi received no first place votes (0 points), 1 second place vote (9 points), 11 third place votes (88 points), 5 fourth place votes (35 points), 7 fifth place votes (42 points), 3 sixth place votes (15 points) and 1 seventh place vote (4 points) — totalling 193 points, a distant third place behind Messrs. Morneau and Jeter.

I have always found this voting methodology both intriguing and fair.  But, how would this play out in a presidential election?  Most of our recent presidential elections do not have more than two “serious” candidates — but 1992 did.  In the 1992 election, William Jefferson Clinton defeated George Herbert Walker Bush by collected 43.0% of the popular vote versus Bush’s 37.4%.  (Please note that Clinton did not receive a majority of the popular vote, but still won with the plurality by collecting 370 Electoral College votes – needing only 270.)

Two assumptions must be made to use the MVP award’s tabulation system — (i) there were only five candidates on the ballot in the 1992 presidential election (in reality, there were more, but the top five candiates collected 104,154,416 of the 104,423,923 total votes cast in the 1992 election) and (ii) points will be allocated as follows:  seven for a first place vote, five for second place vote, three for third, two for fourth and one for fifth.  (I varied the assumptions in calculating the final result and all such results were substantially similar.)

On election day, November 3, 1992, Clinton (along with Albert Arnold “the Internet” Gore, Jr.), collected 44,909,806 votes and Bush, the Republican incumbent (along with James Danforth “what were you thinking” Quayle) collected 39,104,550.  Moreover, as far too many forget, that same day, Henry Ross Perot (along with James Bond “007” Stockdale) collected 19,743,821 votes.  (The other notables included Andre V. Marrou, the Libertarian candidate, collecting 290,087 votes, and James “Bo” Gritz, the Populist candidate, collecting 106,152 votes.)

Before I go through the numbers, it will also be assumed, based on the utter hatred between democrats and republicans that still exists in this country, that all Clinton voters would vote Bush fifth and all Bush Voters would vote Clinton fifth (can you blame me?), and all other voters would have voted their candidate first and then the remaining votes in the order of the actual tally — Clinton, Bush, Perot, Marrou and then Gritz — except that Perot’s voters would likely vote Bush second and Clinton third.  (What was Perot’s party again?)  Therefore, after crunching the numbers, the 1992 election could have ended with Clinton receiving 414,685,850 “points” and Bush receiving 418,549,478 “points.”

Could Bush have won in a squeaker?

Nope – not in this election — because Perot would have ended with 559,071,005 points.  There you have it, Perot in a landslide!

Final vote tabulation as follows (total voters 104,154,416, using 7,5,3,2,1 MVP system):

Clinton:  44,909,806 (first); 396,239 (second); 19,743,821 (third); 39,104,550 (fifth);
414,685,850 (total). 
Bush:  39,104,550 (first); 19,743,821 (second); 396,239 (third); 44,909,806 (fifth);
418,549,478 (total). 
Perot:  19,743,821 (first); 84,014,356 (second); 396,239 (fourth);
559,071,005 (total).
Marrou:  290,087 (first); 84,014,356 (third); 19,743,821 (fourth); 106,152 (fifth);
293,667,471 (total). 
Gritz:  106,152 (first); 84,014,356 (fourth); 20,033,908 (fifth);
188,805,684 (total). 

So if you voted for Ross Perot, or just want to see a third party candidate have a chance, write you Congressman and explain the MVP award’s methodology.  All we need is revision to the current electoral college – amendments to force each states’ electoral college representative to vote based on the MVP awards’ methodology.  And yes, electoral fractions would be necessary.

November 25th, 2006 at 06:54pm Cesium

Entry Filed under: Random, Sport